Champions League Starts Here

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid

The Champions League is back.

I mean, in theory, it has barely been away with the initial qualifying rounds beginning in early July.

But, realistically, some 117 days after the Parisiens of Paris St Germain were crowned European champions for the first ever time, the big boys are back in force and the group stages are here.

My criticism of this new format has been well documented on these pages and I do feel the eight-game league format means the chances of the biggest, richest clubs reaching the knockout stages are largely a given – probably what UEFA desires.

Yet, despite the lack of urgency to get a victory early on, there are still some clashes which jump out. This meeting between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid is one such game and this SBOTOP stalwart anticipates some early Champions League 2025 highlights.

 

Talking Points

If truth be known, Atletico boss Diego Simeone has started to feel the pressure of late, a victim of his own success during a managerial spell that is three weeks away from being the longest in Spain’s history.

So perhaps the fact this tie is away from home, indeed in a different country, will help alleviate some of that.

Yet the reality is that Atlético spent €173 million on eight players this summer and a new look team will barely be given little time to gel such is the demand and expectations that have been created under the Argentine’s stewardship.

It is hard to see beyond a home win based on current form and that is before you consider the team news.

They may have got their first win of the season on Saturday when they dispatched Villarreal, but it did not come without setbacks as striker Julian Alvarez and key defender David Hancko picked up knocks.

Alvarez is suffering with discomfort in his knee, led to him being taken off at half-time by Simeone. As for Hancko, he was forced off with a sprained ankle minutes after coming on late in the second period.

Alex Baena, Thiago Almada and Jose Maria Gimenez have already been ruled out of the tie, while Robin Le Normand and Nicolas Gonzalez asked to be substituted. However, club officials believe that both players will be available.

The home side have no such worries, although it will be interesting to see if summer signing Milos Kerkez starts or is replaced at left-back by Andy Robertson – who reportedly came close to moving to Atletico over the summer – as the Hungarian left-back was substituted seven minutes before the break against Burnley on Sunday.

That was shortly after he booked for simulation after trying to earn a penalty and being on the cusp of a second yellow card.

 

History

This game instantly brings you back to a last 16 tie in 2020 when Liverpool were the holders and Atletico did a number on them at Anfield.

Played days before football stopped due to the Covid pandemic, Atletico travelled to Merseyside with a 1-0 advantage courtesy of a Saul Niguez goal, yet that was cancelled out in the second leg through Georginio Wijnaldum.

An inspired goalkeeping display from Jan Oblak brought the contest to extra time and, although Liverpool took the lead overall in the tie through Roberto Firmino, Simeone’s men turned on the style to score three times and complete a remarkable turnaround and a 4-2 aggregate win.

A double from Marcos Llorente brought tears to the home faithful and Álvaro Morata ran clear in the dying seconds to add a third and complete the comeback.

They have since met twice in the group stages of the competition with Liverpool winning both ties in the autumn of 2021 – 3-2 in Madrid when Mohamed Salah scored the winner from the penalty spot after Antoine Griezmann had netted twice to help the hosts come back from 2-0 down only to be then dismissed early in the second half.

Liverpool won the return game 2-0 at Anfield thank to early goals from the late Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane and again the Spanish outfit played much of the match with 10 men following the sending-off of centre back Felipe.

Overall, both sides have three wins apiece and there have been two draws but Atletico seem to win when it matters most.

Their other success came in the semi-finals of the Europa League in 2010, a competition they went onto win, when Diego Forlan scored in both games and the Spaniards prevailed on away goals after the sides were level at 2-2 on aggregate after both legs.

 

Betting Tip

As far as the Champions League 2025 betting odds are concerned, the hosts are the favourites to win the competition. They are also clear favourites to win this tie, priced 1X2 @ 1.55 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.38.

Atletico, meanwhile, are on offer 1X2 @ 4.89 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.14.

A re-run of their most recent meeting will pay out @ 8.20 with Correct Score 2-0.

Goal options vary from total goal 0-1 @ 3.92 to 2-3 @ 2.06, 4-6 @ 2.77 and over 3.25 @ 2.35.

I do see the home side prevailing here with a bit to spare and my *** tip is 2-3 @ 2.06.

   

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